We need clarity from Tories and Labour on Europe

Aside from the undertones of xenophobia and gaffes, UKIP is, at its core, a one-issue party - a campaign for getting Britain out of the European Union. The results of the European election are the strongest marker yet that what has long seemed a near impossibility could eventually become a reality.

Whatever your politics, uncertainty is the enemy of UK plc and the property industry, so the potential enormity of the issue should not be underestimated.

At meetings with Scottish investors and agents last week, I found it alarming just how damaging the uncertainty over the independence referendum has been. Several major funds are putting investment on hold, blue chip institutions are delaying occupational moves and even career decisions are being put off until the result comes through.

Imagine the prospect of a drawn-out referendum over EU membership and the likes of German or Canadian pension funds deciding to hold off from investing in the UK for a year, maybe more. The impact on investment volumes could run into the billions.

To minimise the impact of the uncertainty that is arising, Labour and the Conservatives need to set out as clearly as possible their plans to address the issue if they are in government after next May’s general election.

David Cameron has promised a referendum by 2017 should the Conservatives still be in. It’s a start, but to provide further clarity, he needs to provide the terms on which an in/out vote would be made, most crucially in relation to immigration and visas — an issue central to recruiting top talent into the internationalised UK property and financial service industries.

With Labour edging the polls, the pressure on Ed Miliband to make clear his intentions on the matter are ever more urgent, and he must stop talking in “unlikelys” and “maybes”.

Once Labour and the Conservatives provide more definitive policies, there will be clearer alternatives for voters who have been drawn to UKIP’s extremist stance.

Contingency not complacency

Anti-EU sentiment is emerging across the continent, and while fears of the union falling apart might not be as overbearing as in early 2012, all of a sudden there is a serious cloud on the horizon of the UK’s roaring property industry.

It is a pertinent reminder that, although it feels as if the boom times are back, there is no room for complacency. The property industry never will be invincible, and there is always the prospect of the rug being pulled from under its feet by macro-economic or geopolitical issues. Events such as these can be the trigger for cycles to turn sour.

As former Segro chief executive Ian Coull warns, there has been a realignment every eight to 10 years during his career, and if prices are still rising in 2015, then we should be worried that the market is overheating.

There are plenty of reasons to be cheerful at present, but the market will turn at some point and every business should have a contingency plan for when the music stops.