I don’t tend to gamble in stocks and shares, because I have no knowledge in this area and am far too busy, but for the first time in 40 years, Liz’s article prompted me to dip my toe in the water.
I have bought a few shares in retail stocks – they are profitable but are experiencing turbulent trading conditions.
New Look’s credit rating following its CVA is a typical example of how the stock value can go up.
I was prompted to buy the shares by the change of dynamic between landlords and tenants. Most of them are valued on their leases and lease liabilities. When things go right, the shares will rise and when they go wrong, there is now a safety net whereby subject to a CVA, retailers can cut their rental outgoings by 30% and do deals with most of their suppliers and other creditors.
A public company that was going to go bust now has a second chance of survival.
So in short, if the market hasn’t considered the safety net that going through a CVA can offer, then these shares are undervalued, so I won’t lose all my money if they get into trouble and renegotiate their outgoings based on CVA protection.
It’s a strange phenomenon that if one sells short on retail landlords, one should buy shares in retailers.
Anthony Lorenz, managing director, The Lorenz Consultancy