European growth will slow from its current recovery pace.
While property remains supported by limited supply, the hunt for yield has driven demand to unsustainable values, especially in a rising interest rate environment. Our hope is that central banks implement policy carefully so as not to impair liquidity.
Regardless of the outcome of Brexit, the UK will continue to be a ‘safe haven’ for foreign capital. Despite an expected increase in rates, the value gap between primary and secondary assets will continue to widen. A clear risk is a Corbyn/McDonnell government, especially if they implement their earlier tax proposals.
The challenge for investment managers will be finding the potential for added value in the right off-prime assets. The most successful will be those who combine local market knowledge with a creative approach.
Resolution: To continue as successful and transparent stewards of our investors’ capital, carefully deploying funds into investments that provide strong, risk-adjusted returns. We also aim to continue giving back to society as a core priority. In particular, I plan to work harder in encouraging partners, staff and counterparties to make these initiatives part of their personal and professional lives.
Keith Breslauer, managing director at Patron Capital
2019 forecasts: what lies ahead
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2019 forecast: Keith Breslauer (Patron Capital)