China’s measures to rein in property bubbles will curb house prices while avoiding a crash, said central bank adviser Li Daokui.

The government aims only to “curtail excessive price gains in some areas,” Li said in a phone interview today. “Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen may experience some correction but price declines won’t be more than 10%.”

Li’s view puts him at odds with BNP Paribas and Citigroup, which forecast that home prices may tumble as much as 20% as measures to curb credit cool speculation. Efforts to tame spiraling property prices will “strike a deadly blow” against speculators, a government researcher wrote in the China Daily yesterday.