I hope some of the more protracted and apparently irreconcilable political and geopolitical challenges will be meaningfully resolved. Real estate has proven resilient, but undoubtedly the economic impact will be felt in markets where uncertainty persists.
I expect the broad global trends shaping the investment landscape to continue, including the headwinds in retail. Logistics investments, despite nearing historically low yields, will be buoyed by rental growth across many global markets.
The pace of technological change will not slow. More real estate investors will turn to ‘alternative’ sources of stable income. Appetite for rented housing will grow.
The wider ESG challenges will persist. Our investment strategy and the ESG agenda will become ever more entwined with efficient, modern buildings, while employee wellness will be a key focus for tenants. Retail schemes at the heart of communities are likely to enjoy more resilient income streams in the years ahead.
Resolution: To further globalise our real estate capabilities, raise the bar in addressing ESG and find opportunities among the uncertainty to meet our clients’ objectives.
David Paine, global co-head of real estate at Aberdeen Standard Investments
2019 forecasts: what lies ahead
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2019 forecast: David Paine (Aberdeen Standard Investments)